WATERFALL FORENSICSalpha

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2013-12-26 · 1/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A1135,716.37135,716.372,131,452.902,131,452.820.08
1-AX202,020.47202,020.490.02
2-A1273,148.97273,148.97859,208.67859,208.670.00
2-AX275,637.94275,637.940.00
B-130,334.1830,334.1825,711.3325,711.360.03
B-220,222.7920,222.7917,140.8917,140.910.02
B-313,681.1813,681.1811,596.2011,596.220.02
B-410,111.3910,111.398,570.448,570.450.01
B-512,808.5912,808.590.000.000.00

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.