Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2014-09-25 · 10/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A1116,273.10116,273.101,336,952.121,336,952.120.01
1-AX170,442.33170,442.28——0.05
2-A1259,722.44259,722.44352,830.42352,830.420.00
2-AX261,839.14261,839.07——0.07
B-129,500.1829,500.1826,864.1326,864.130.00
B-219,666.7919,666.7917,909.4217,909.420.00
B-313,305.0313,305.0312,116.1312,116.130.00
B-49,833.399,833.398,954.718,954.710.00
B-512,760.0812,760.200.000.000.12

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.