Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2014-11-25 · 12/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A1112,465.50112,465.50929,215.86929,215.860.00
1-AX163,979.74163,979.79——0.05
2-A1256,133.59256,133.591,371,196.401,371,196.400.01
2-AX257,992.81257,992.79——0.02
B-129,292.7129,292.7126,744.5626,744.560.00
B-219,528.4719,528.4717,829.7117,829.710.00
B-313,211.4613,211.4612,062.2012,062.200.01
B-49,764.249,764.248,914.858,914.850.01
B-512,741.3312,741.290.000.010.05

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.