Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2015-08-25 · 21/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A191,479.4191,479.412,470,582.002,470,582.000.01
1-AX132,252.61132,252.65——0.04
2-A1199,097.32199,097.321,975,796.321,975,796.320.01
2-AX198,597.06198,597.10——0.04
B-128,404.7828,404.7828,101.0228,101.010.01
B-218,936.5218,936.5218,734.0118,734.010.00
B-312,810.9912,810.9912,673.9812,673.980.01
B-49,468.269,468.269,367.019,367.000.01
B-512,680.8212,680.800.000.000.02

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.