Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2015-11-25 · 24/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A184,754.2984,754.29335,406.56335,406.560.00
1-AX122,713.81122,713.81——0.00
2-A1192,055.46192,055.463,648,312.093,648,312.090.01
2-AX190,507.21190,507.26——0.05
B-128,110.7228,110.7228,737.3528,737.350.00
B-218,740.4818,740.4819,158.2319,158.230.00
B-312,678.3612,678.3612,960.9812,960.980.00
B-49,370.249,370.249,579.129,579.120.00
B-512,664.3412,664.340.000.000.00

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.