Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2015-12-28 · 25/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A184,349.0184,349.01590,750.55590,750.550.01
1-AX122,120.03122,120.02——0.01
2-A1186,415.77186,415.771,665,384.391,665,384.390.01
2-AX184,745.87184,745.81——0.06
B-128,016.0928,016.0928,835.7228,835.710.01
B-218,677.4018,677.3919,223.8119,223.810.01
B-312,635.6812,635.6813,005.3513,005.340.01
B-49,338.709,338.709,611.919,611.900.01
B-512,660.8612,660.940.000.000.08

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.