Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2016-05-25 · 30/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A178,109.6478,109.642,033,305.542,033,305.540.00
1-AX113,020.07113,020.04——0.03
2-A1169,914.01169,914.014,201,893.064,201,893.060.01
2-AX168,806.41168,806.34——0.07
B-127,597.3327,597.3229,282.1329,282.130.01
B-218,398.2218,398.2119,521.4219,521.420.01
B-312,446.8112,446.8113,206.6813,206.690.01
B-49,199.119,199.119,760.719,760.710.00
B-512,669.9612,670.080.000.000.12

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.