Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2016-07-25 · 32/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A171,213.8571,213.852,389,943.532,389,943.530.01
1-AX104,238.95104,238.90——0.05
2-A1160,252.46160,252.462,839,651.322,839,651.320.01
2-AX159,429.86159,429.87——0.01
B-127,504.5427,504.5329,918.1629,918.150.01
B-218,336.3618,336.3619,945.4419,945.440.01
B-312,404.9612,404.9613,493.5413,493.540.01
B-49,168.189,168.189,972.729,972.720.00
B-512,709.3812,709.410.000.000.03

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.