Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2016-08-25 · 33/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A168,326.0068,326.00284,241.27284,241.270.00
1-AX100,421.12100,421.16——0.04
2-A1155,862.83155,862.832,448,465.012,448,465.010.00
2-AX154,761.54154,761.64——0.10
B-127,423.3227,423.3330,077.8030,077.800.01
B-218,282.2218,282.2220,051.8720,051.870.01
B-312,368.3412,368.3413,565.5413,565.540.01
B-49,141.119,141.1110,025.9310,025.930.00
B-512,714.1212,713.960.000.000.16

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.