Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2017-01-25 · 38/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A159,901.7959,901.791,771,042.081,771,042.080.00
1-AX88,186.8888,186.93——0.05
2-A1138,753.90138,753.903,578,358.903,578,358.900.00
2-AX137,447.89137,447.86——0.03
B-126,953.0926,953.0930,868.7330,868.730.00
B-217,968.7317,968.7320,579.1520,579.150.01
B-312,156.2512,156.2513,922.2613,922.260.01
B-48,984.368,984.3610,289.5810,289.580.01
B-512,710.7312,710.740.000.000.01

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.