Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2017-09-25 · 46/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A148,414.1648,414.16230,429.59230,429.590.01
1-AX70,846.8870,846.92——0.04
2-A1121,644.18121,644.18796,464.48796,464.480.01
2-AX119,823.92119,823.90——0.02
B-126,111.6226,111.6232,581.4832,581.480.01
B-217,407.7517,407.7521,720.9921,720.990.00
B-311,776.7411,776.7414,694.7414,694.740.01
B-48,703.878,703.8710,860.4910,860.490.01
B-512,673.4412,673.440.000.000.00

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.