Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2017-12-26 · 49/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A139,463.8039,463.80214,659.94214,659.940.00
1-AX57,661.2457,661.19——0.05
2-A1116,226.75116,226.751,292,482.441,292,482.440.00
2-AX114,481.10114,481.14——0.04
B-125,806.3825,806.3833,776.2433,776.240.00
B-217,204.2517,204.2522,517.4922,517.490.00
B-311,639.0711,639.0715,233.6015,233.600.01
B-48,602.138,602.1311,258.7511,258.750.01
B-512,669.7012,669.690.000.000.01

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.