Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2018-01-25 · 50/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A139,204.4239,204.42206,997.63206,997.630.00
1-AX57,280.3357,280.29——0.04
2-A1114,228.79114,228.792,047,208.292,047,208.290.00
2-AX112,421.51112,421.48——0.03
B-125,697.8925,697.8933,930.7633,930.760.00
B-217,131.9317,131.9222,620.5122,620.510.01
B-311,590.1411,590.1415,303.2915,303.290.00
B-48,565.968,565.9611,310.2511,310.250.01
B-512,666.6112,666.700.000.000.09

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.