Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2018-02-26 · 51/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A138,954.3038,954.30307,562.81307,562.810.00
1-AX56,910.8656,910.86——0.00
2-A1111,064.15111,064.15162,492.65162,492.650.00
2-AX109,257.96109,258.00——0.04
B-125,591.6925,591.6938,329.3738,329.370.01
B-217,061.1217,061.1325,552.9125,552.910.01
B-311,542.2411,542.2417,287.1317,287.130.01
B-48,530.568,530.5612,776.4612,776.460.01
B-512,665.1112,665.040.000.000.07

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.