Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2018-06-25 · 55/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A135,853.2635,853.261,398,518.371,398,518.370.01
1-AX52,278.3152,278.34——0.03
2-A1106,796.75106,796.75158,435.61158,435.610.00
2-AX104,816.66104,816.73——0.07
B-124,829.5224,829.5273,244.1373,244.130.01
B-216,553.0116,553.0248,829.4248,829.420.01
B-311,198.4911,198.4933,034.2233,034.220.01
B-48,276.518,276.5124,414.7124,414.710.01
B-512,652.5212,652.390.000.000.13

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.