Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2018-10-25 · 59/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A132,973.1032,973.10828,772.11828,772.110.00
1-AX48,944.9848,945.07——0.09
2-A1102,086.44102,086.44767,022.65767,022.650.01
2-AX100,051.31100,051.32——0.01
B-124,161.5524,161.5670,591.7170,591.710.01
B-216,107.7016,107.7147,061.1447,061.140.01
B-310,897.2310,897.2331,837.9331,837.930.01
B-48,053.858,053.8523,530.5723,530.570.00
B-512,697.7712,697.790.000.000.02

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.