Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2019-01-25 · 62/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A131,517.5731,517.57185,411.83185,411.830.00
1-AX46,779.1946,779.20——0.01
2-A196,987.6396,987.63860,495.77860,495.770.01
2-AX94,826.9294,826.88——0.04
B-123,551.3323,551.3352,850.4752,850.470.00
B-215,700.8915,700.8935,233.6535,233.650.01
B-310,622.0110,622.0123,836.3623,836.370.01
B-47,850.447,850.4417,616.8217,616.820.01
B-512,688.2612,688.290.000.000.03

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.