Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2019-02-25 · 63/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A131,293.5331,293.53185,537.89185,537.890.01
1-AX46,446.4946,446.54——0.05
2-A195,657.4495,657.44559,072.78559,072.780.00
2-AX93,624.5093,624.53——0.03
B-123,398.6423,398.6449,748.5849,748.580.01
B-215,599.0915,599.1033,165.7233,165.720.01
B-310,553.1410,553.1422,437.3722,437.370.00
B-47,799.557,799.5516,582.8616,582.860.01
B-512,692.5612,692.540.000.000.02

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.