Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2019-07-25 · 68/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A129,599.6729,599.67509,137.45509,137.450.01
1-AX44,089.7144,089.76——0.05
2-A191,551.4491,551.441,527,608.331,527,608.330.00
2-AX89,377.7489,377.72——0.02
B-122,588.3822,588.3998,168.8498,168.840.01
B-215,058.9215,058.9265,445.8965,445.890.00
B-310,187.7010,187.7144,275.6444,275.640.01
B-47,529.467,529.4632,722.9532,722.950.01
B-512,693.0912,693.050.000.000.04

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.