Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2019-10-25 · 71/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A126,812.7426,812.74160,528.87160,528.870.01
1-AX40,029.3140,029.34——0.03
2-A188,736.5788,736.571,080,856.651,080,856.650.00
2-AX86,515.3886,515.34——0.04
B-121,875.8421,875.8467,669.6267,669.620.01
B-214,583.8914,583.8945,113.0845,113.080.00
B-39,866.339,866.3330,520.0230,520.020.01
B-47,291.957,291.9522,556.5422,556.540.01
B-512,695.1912,695.190.000.000.00

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.