Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2019-12-26 · 73/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A125,715.7325,715.73576,440.76576,440.760.01
1-AX38,410.1238,410.16——0.04
2-A185,472.3885,472.531,900,065.091,900,065.090.16
2-AX83,353.2683,353.42——0.16
B-121,373.8721,373.78116,723.91116,723.910.09
B-214,249.2514,249.1877,815.9477,815.940.07
B-39,639.949,639.9052,644.2652,644.260.04
B-47,124.627,124.6038,907.9738,907.970.02
B-512,682.0512,681.990.000.000.06

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.