Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2020-02-25 · 75/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A124,833.7524,833.75426,076.45426,076.450.00
1-AX36,942.7936,942.81——0.02
2-A180,873.2880,873.28585,090.53585,090.530.00
2-AX79,234.0679,234.08——0.02
B-120,841.0420,841.0481,784.2781,784.270.00
B-213,894.0313,894.0354,522.8454,522.840.01
B-39,399.639,399.6336,885.9536,885.950.01
B-46,947.016,947.0127,261.4227,261.420.01
B-512,705.5112,705.530.000.000.02

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.