Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2020-04-27 · 77/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A122,700.2222,700.22666,634.92666,634.920.01
1-AX33,605.3033,605.32——0.02
2-A178,742.5478,742.541,848,723.551,848,723.550.00
2-AX77,169.1477,169.11——0.03
B-120,072.7520,072.75175,639.24175,639.240.00
B-213,381.8313,381.83117,092.83117,092.830.01
B-39,053.119,053.1179,215.9679,215.960.01
B-46,690.926,690.9258,546.4158,546.410.01
B-512,695.8612,695.880.000.000.02

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.