Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2020-05-26 · 78/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A121,894.7121,894.711,331,108.991,331,108.990.00
1-AX32,000.7132,000.70——0.01
2-A175,884.7275,884.722,653,190.582,653,190.580.00
2-AX74,458.7974,458.78——0.01
B-119,495.7719,495.77278,812.92278,812.920.00
B-212,997.1812,997.18185,875.28185,875.280.00
B-38,792.898,792.89125,748.86125,748.860.00
B-46,498.596,498.5992,937.6492,937.640.00
B-512,667.7112,667.740.000.000.03

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.