Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2014-07-25 · 8/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A1121,455.83121,455.831,734,328.591,734,328.590.01
1-AX179,231.78179,231.84——0.06
2-A1265,379.33265,379.33929,570.64929,570.640.00
2-AX267,823.83267,823.79——0.04
B-129,718.1129,718.1126,561.9426,561.940.00
B-219,812.0819,812.0817,707.9617,707.960.01
B-313,403.3213,403.3211,979.8411,979.840.00
B-49,906.049,906.048,853.988,853.980.00
B-512,783.9312,783.890.000.000.04

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.