Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2020-07-27 · 80/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A119,165.9919,165.99126,048.10126,048.100.01
1-AX27,165.0527,165.09——0.04
2-A170,280.1970,280.201,191,313.461,191,313.460.01
2-AX69,088.3569,088.33——0.02
B-118,098.9218,098.9297,177.8897,177.880.00
B-212,065.9512,065.9564,785.2564,785.250.00
B-38,162.898,162.8943,828.7043,828.700.01
B-46,032.976,032.9732,392.6332,392.630.01
B-512,601.7712,601.730.000.000.04

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.