Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2020-08-25 · 81/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A119,013.6819,013.681,036,697.891,036,697.890.00
1-AX26,943.3226,943.31——0.01
2-A168,438.6268,438.623,006,449.763,006,449.760.00
2-AX67,405.4067,405.43——0.03
B-117,814.7017,814.70286,598.53286,598.530.00
B-211,876.4711,876.47191,065.69191,065.690.01
B-38,034.708,034.70129,260.29129,260.290.00
B-45,938.235,938.2395,532.8495,532.840.01
B-512,608.0412,608.030.000.000.01

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.