Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2020-12-28 · 85/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A115,297.5015,297.50328,733.72328,733.720.01
1-AX21,982.9121,982.94——0.03
2-A147,756.0447,756.04907,775.50907,775.500.00
2-AX46,346.9446,346.99——0.05
B-114,213.5314,213.54107,559.22107,559.220.02
B-29,475.689,475.6971,706.1571,706.140.01
B-36,410.526,410.5248,510.8448,510.840.00
B-44,737.844,737.8535,853.0735,853.070.01
B-512,575.1712,575.060.000.000.11

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.