Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2021-01-25 · 86/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A114,900.2814,900.2889,908.6589,908.650.01
1-AX21,375.7921,375.75——0.04
2-A146,352.7746,352.772,284,274.452,284,274.450.00
2-AX44,830.1044,830.08——0.02
B-113,869.6413,869.63184,448.13184,448.130.01
B-29,246.439,246.42122,965.42122,965.420.01
B-36,255.426,255.4183,188.9083,188.900.01
B-44,623.214,623.2161,482.7161,482.710.00
B-512,556.7312,556.810.000.000.08

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.