Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2021-02-25 · 87/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A114,791.6414,791.64443,757.58443,757.580.01
1-AX21,217.2721,217.29——0.02
2-A142,606.7142,607.412,680,785.282,680,785.280.71
2-AX41,400.8841,401.53——0.65
B-113,288.7713,288.36347,789.33347,789.330.41
B-28,859.188,858.91231,859.55231,859.550.27
B-35,993.445,993.25156,858.27156,858.260.19
B-44,429.594,429.45115,929.78115,929.780.14
B-512,531.7412,531.370.000.000.37

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.