Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2021-04-26 · 89/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A114,088.7814,088.7880,245.1680,245.160.00
1-AX20,228.8320,228.83——0.00
2-A135,799.0735,799.812,847,148.652,847,148.650.74
2-AX34,763.8334,764.52——0.69
B-111,601.2511,600.83327,977.67327,977.670.43
B-27,734.177,733.89218,651.78218,651.780.28
B-35,232.345,232.16147,922.91147,922.910.19
B-43,867.083,866.94109,325.89109,325.890.15
B-512,517.4412,517.020.000.000.42

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.