Waterfall Forensics.

Waterfall Forensics

We ran the contract forward for eight years. It matched to the penny.

Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2013-1: deconstructed from its prospectus into an executable encoding, then replayed against every monthly distribution the trustee ever reported — 93 periods, February 2013 through final termination.

$363M

of actual distributions reproduced

99.7%

of 2,139 comparisons within $1

$0.08

worst principal delta, ever

Every period, every class — computed from the contract vs. reported by the trustee

2021-05-25 · 90/93
ClassInterest computedInterest reportedPrincipal computedPrincipal reportedΔ
1-A113,991.8113,991.8180,101.3880,101.380.00
1-AX19,527.9119,527.96——0.05
2-A131,609.3431,609.342,465,352.742,465,352.740.00
2-AX30,774.9230,774.89——0.03
B-110,586.6110,586.61294,710.74294,710.740.00
B-27,057.747,057.74196,473.83196,473.830.00
B-34,774.724,774.72132,919.02132,919.020.00
B-43,528.873,528.8798,236.9198,236.910.00
B-512,479.7012,479.680.000.000.02

drag through 93 distribution dates — Δ is the summed absolute difference between the contract-computed and trustee-reported figures for the period

Or see all 93 periods at once: the tie-out heatmap ›

How

The governing documents are deconstructed into a provenance-linked encoding — every waterfall step, trigger, and floor provision cites the clause that defines it. A deterministic interpreter executes that encoding, period by period, against the collateral cashflows the trustee reported. State rolls forward on computed values only; an error anywhere would compound and surface. It doesn't.

The same engine then runs Monte Carlo counterfactuals — what should have happened under different prepayment, default, or servicing behavior — and exports the whole model as readable Python your own analysts run and defend. Every encoding is open to clause-by-clause verification, and every verification lands in an append-only ledger.